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Chairman’s Corner

As we navigate the complexities of the financial world, this space will serve as our platform to share insights, discuss trends, and explore the policies shaping our economic landscape.

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My Personal Forecasts for 2024

  • March 31, 2024

With two major wars going on, an indicted former president and a demented current president, how can 2024 be more challenging than 2023?

Well, the answer is simple and here is my explanation below.

1. An Election of Dire Consequences
As I have said it many times, one way out for the Democrats is to replace Biden with Hillary. The other way, and perhaps both will be used together, is for the White House puppet of the ruling elite to orchestrate with the World Economic Forum and the Governor of Texas a border conflict and possible “civil war” threat that justifies martial law and the suspension of the presidential election.

On the Republican side: Criminal indictments will only increase Trump’s popularity because they are clearly motivated by politics. The biggest curveball is that Trump may actually be behind bars on Election Day. That’s OK, there is no legal or other prohibition on electing an incarcerated convicted felon as president. Third-world, yes. Illegal, no.

2. Ukraine
Russia is winning the war decisively. The West and Ukraine have shown no willingness to negotiate and there’s no reason for the Russians to negotiate because they’re winning. With that in mind, it seems likely that Joe Biden will double-down on his losing bet.

My forecast is that Russia will not de-escalate because they’re winning. Biden will not de-escalate because he’s surrounded by warmongers and has no reverse gear. This standoff will be easily going through 2025 and beyond.

3. Israel and Gaza
If Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels in Yemen (both proxies of Iran) attacks on Israel escalate, Israel will not limit their response to those two groups. They are likely to launch attacks on Iran itself, going to the root of the problem. At that point, Iran may fire missiles at Israel and close the Straits of Hormuz. If the escalation scenarios play out even in part, expect oil prices to go to $150 per barrel or higher. That will put the U.S. and Western Europe in a recession worse than 2008 and the earlier oil shock of 1974.

4. Markets
The data showing the U.S. is heading to a recession is abundant. In fact, the U.S. may already be in recession. The indicators include inverted yield curves, rising commercial real estate defaults, declining industrial production, declining job creation and falling bank loans. To that effect, I believe we are headed towards a rare global recession in 2024. With that as background, my market predictions are fairly straightforward:

It will be a bad year for stocks, a good year for Treasury securities and a down year for commodities, except for energy and gold. The winners will be Treasuries, gold, oil and King Dollar.

Come to the Financial Policy Council https://lnkd.in/eZU2UgYd, be a part of decisions that will shape the country’s future & share your thoughts.

#intelligence

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