The US Desperately Needs of a Department of Cyber Security

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As the world is turning digital, warfare is following suit in a very rapid and devastating way. Countless organizations in all sectors (Target, Equifax, DNC, IRS) are continuously reporting data hacks. According to the Government Accountability Office (GAO), federal civilian agencies reported 35,277 cybersecurity incidents, such as web-based attacks, phishing and loss or theft of computing equipment in 2017.

The public and private sectors in the US have not adapted to cyber threats. Instead of presenting a unified front for defending against these attacks, and have a plan to go on the offensive when necessary, most organizations are busy doing damage control by themselves, without any real long-term plan. This is done despite the fact that countless studies show year after year, that cybersecurity is the number one priority for all IT leaders.

A recent survey of government organizations, private sector and citizens in the U.S., China, Russia, and India found that more than 88% of participants believe that cyberspace threats are significant.

In the United States alone, state and local government IT leaders have maintained for years that cybersecurity needs to be the government’s priority. A 2018 Digital Cities Survey of city government IT leaders put cybersecurity as the top priority. The same survey of county government IT leaders placed cybersecurity at the top of the list for the past 5 years in a row. Lastly, the National Association of State Chief Information Officers (NASCIO) published their top 10 policy and technology priorities for 2019, and cybersecurity was named number 1.

The conventional literature throughout our country claims that cybersecurity is everyone’s problem, and that it needs to be dealt with on multiple levels within the government, private sector, as well as individual citizens. While it is true that cybersecurity needs to be fought for on multiple levels, this fight is extremely inefficient when everyone does their own thing, without a leading organization to set the policy and bear full ownership of outcomes.

The reality is that our nation’s current organization for dealing with cyber-attacks is doomed to fail. Responsibilities, skills and talent are spread across too many different parts of the government, which creates confusion, and most importantly, a lack of leadership and ownership.

For example, the Department of Defense, through its US Cyber Command arm, is responsible for national defense. The FBI is responsible for investigating and enforcement. The Department of Homeland Security oversees damage control and recovery for cyber-attacks. Lastly, every military branch has their own individual cyber units. Lack of communication and too much bureaucracy makes our cyber security efforts extremely inefficient, putting our nation at risk with each second that passes. Each one of these organizations have many other responsibilities and are stretched too thin to give cybersecurity the focus and resources it desperately needs.

President Trump is trying to rectify this situation by further centralizing the management and oversight of federal civilian cybersecurity through the National Cybersecurity Strategy of September 2018. This strategy will enable the Department of Homeland Security to secure all federal department and agency networks, with the exception of national security systems, the Department of Defense and the Intelligence Community. This is a step in the right direction, but it needs to be taken further.

There needs to be a department that is one hundred percent responsible for our nation’s cyber security, in the same way our military is responsible for our physical security. This department could be called the “Department of Cyber Security” (DCS) and it should set the policy, provide the proper organizational structure, and work with all other parties (government, private sector, and citizens) to gain control of our nation’s cyber security.

The new Department of Cyber Security’s top priorities should be to:

I. Request and maintain adequate funding – this is a top national security priority.

II. Mobilize our country’s best talent and resources to operate under a single umbrella and a single coherent policy.

III. Fill in the talent gap by promoting cybersecurity workforce, training, economic development. According to the “Presidential Executive Order on Strengthening the Cybersecurity of Federal Networks and Critical Infrastructure,” there is an estimated 299,000 shortfall in cybersecurity professionals across all industry sectors.

IV. Incentivize research, contests, hackathons – it must adopt and encourage ways of unconventional warfare.

V. Collaborate with the private sector to share threat intelligence on an ongoing basis, as well as new advances in the digital world.

VI. Outline liabilities, reporting requirements, and course of action for the other organizations to follow.

The United States must treat the issue of Cybersecurity with the same seriousness it treats the military. It must be organized from top down, it must be prepared to defend our networks and to attack at a moment’s notice. Not prioritizing cybersecurity policy leaves federal, state and local agencies, U.S. critical infrastructure, businesses and citizens extremely vulnerable to attacks that could be absolutely devastating.

Creating a new Department of Cyber Security that is one hundred percent in charge and responsible for our nation’s Cybersecurity is the only solution that allows our country to gain control of the cyber space, successfully defend our networks and be ready to go on the offense when necessary.

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U.S. Healthcare: The Most UnAmerican Industry

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In the past three decades, the U.S. healthcare industry has evolved to resemble a poorly regulated market, where financial incentives are set to default to the most expensive treatment option possible. Through the Affordable Care Act (ACA, ObamaCare) President Obama compromised with the medical industry to pass a bill that aimed to cover all Americans; the compromise entailed a complete lack of cost control and treatment accountability for patients. As a result, the United States health care system is the most expensive in the world, but consistently underperforms on most dimensions of performance when compared to other countries. Worse of all, it is bankrupting our country at a rapid pace.

The United States now spends $3.3 Trillion per year on its healthcare system under the Affordable Care Act. In comparison, the U.S. spends $660 billion per year on our military (the largest and most advanced military in the world; this budget is also bigger than the next 8 countries’ budgets combined), and $230 billion per year on our education system. Even when the cost is calculated per capita, the U.S. spends at least twice as much as Canada, and three times as much as Italy. Worse, the Commonwealth Fund’s report on international health system efficiency, ranked the United States last of 11 developed nations, on quality, access, efficiency and equity of care. The current healthcare solutions, administration and financing, are dysfunctional to say the least. Most urgently, this atrocious healthcare system is funded without end by the U.S. government, under the Affordable Care Act. The $3.3 Trillion per year makes up 16.5% of the U.S. total debt of $20 Trillion.

National health spending is projected to increase from 18 percent of GDP to about 25 percent by 2037. The root of the ridiculous high costs of healthcare lay within Obamacare’s faulty incentives. Insurance companies pay their executives as a percentage of premiums. Thus, the more they pay for their insured, the higher their salaries. If doctors charge hundreds of thousands of dollars for simple procedures (as it is now happening more often), insurance companies usually have no problems paying for it. Doctors know this; thus, it is not rare to find three or four doctors billing the same patient as if they each did a procedure, when in fact, most of them just walked by and said hello. These instances are documented, as they happen all the time. While Obamacare was hailed as a victory for the consumers, it truly is a payday for healthcare professionals. Universal coverage under Obamacare does not mean anyone in the U.S. can be treated. It means anyone in the U.S. can see a doctor and be billed for it, whether they are healed or not. As a result, the U.S. is becoming sick and broke. Obviously, this demands urgent, decisive action. While President Trump is fighting to repeal Obamacare with the persistence of a honeybadger, the private sector must be ready to provide new, innovative healthcare delivery models.

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION:

  1. Repeal Obamacare ASAP First, the Trump administration must do everything and anything to repeal Obamacare as soon as possible. Shifting federal spending to private individuals, employers and states doesn’t solve the healthcare problem, but spending our way into bankruptcy is not the solution, and should not even be an option. The first step to lowering the costs of healthcare is to stop paying for it indiscriminately. In an industry where prices rise to whatever the market (i.e. the government and insurance companies) will pay, it is counterproductive to write blank checks to healthcare providers. This is why our average annual healthcare spend per capita is triple that of other OECD countries.
  2. Make Healthcare Competitive Again Second, the Trump administration must roll back regulations and mandates, and adjust laws that allow healthcare to become a competitive market. Such a market would adhere to the concept of “value based purchasing,” which states that providers only get paid if they fix the problem. This means hospitals and doctors cannot bill simply because they applied a procedure, whether it was successful or not; the patient must be healed. Value based purchasing dictates that providers take responsibility for the patients’ health. Also, this new, competitive market would naturally favor healthcare providers who achieve triple aim: lower costs, improve quality, and improve patient satisfaction. Instead of the government setting prices for health care commodities, providers need to compete to offer the lowest price.Regarding physicians, the Trump administration must counter restrictive state laws to allow nonphysician providers (i.e. advanced-practice nurses) to practice to the full extent of their training. This would expand the workforce supply, increase competition, and lower prices.
  3. Adopt Blockchain Technologies Lastly, the Trump Administration needs to make it a priority to adopt blockchain technologies, which will allow the private sector to accelerate their use of blockchain technology. Since the private healthcare industry works so closely with government institutions, one cannot fundamentally evolve without the other side making some fundamental changes as well. It takes two to Tango.

PRIVATE SECTOR:

While the Trump administration is fighting to repeal the catastrophically expensive Obamacare, the private sector must take ownership and deliver bold, innovative, and profitable solutions. Healthcare entrepreneurs must focus their efforts and capital on 1). inventing new healthcare delivery models, and 2). adopting blockchain technology.

  1. Create New Healthcare Delivery Models: Specifically, we need solutions that revolutionize the large institutions, such as hospitals. It currently costs $1,200/day in fixed costs to keep a hospital bed available (regardless of whether there is a patient in it or not). Hospital bills make up 40-50% of the yearly $3.3T spent; extremely inefficient. The solution is not found in inventing models that reduce the cost by 10%, but rather by inventing brand-new healthcare delivery systems, such as ambulatory surgical centers (ASCs) and home-based micro-hospital units. For example, ASCs provide cost-effective surgeries in a convenient environment that is less stressful than hospitals, while home-based micro-hospital units utilize the most recent advances in technology (telehealth, wearables, sensors and systems) to reinvent the way patients are treated, in a more efficient and cost-effective way: in their own homes. The U.S. healthcare industry will depend almost entirely on capable entrepreneurs willing to reinvent these ancient, costly, inefficient care delivery practices.
  2. Digitization of Healthcare and Adoption of Blockchain Technology The single biggest innovation coming to the healthcare industry is the adoption of blockchain technology, as it is the best solution available to streamline all healthcare data, processes and infrastructure. Blockchain is the great equalizer, because it can absorb information from hundreds of types of software and programs lurking in the healthcare industry, and organize it in a decentralized, nationally/worldly distributed ledger that can record transactions between two parties efficiently and in a verifiable and permanent way. Hundreds of systems into one system.The competitive advantage blockchain offers to any healthcare institution that adopts it early will slash through the administrative and operating costs. Issues of billing, coding, collections, coordination, etc., will begin to disappear from the industry, as a nationally distributed ledger will accurately and permanently verify and track all data as it is created. No more reconciliations, duplicate data entries, and endless confusion.Lastly, the adoption of blockchain technology in the healthcare industry will revolutionize the outcomes for patients as well. In the past two decades, digital technology fully transformed most aspects of our lives, such as communication, banking, entertainment, shopping, etc. Healthcare is the exception.Most technology investments in healthcare did not translate into better outcomes for patients. For example, in the past few years, the U.S. government invested more than $30B to digitize hospitals and doctors’ work. The result? Doctors and staff now spend the majority of their time behind computers, frustratingly managing data, instead of having more time for their patients. An Ipsos Public Affairs survey recently found that most doctors (83%) are spread so thin that they aren’t able to spend enough time with their patients. Endless paperwork, inconsistent software, unavailable data, etc., is keeping doctors, providers and staff focused on bureaucracy rather than delivering care to patients. The digitization of healthcare (from paper records to electronic health records) and subsequent adoption of the blockchain technology will truly improve the cost, quality and patient satisfaction.In conclusion, President Trump must continue to fight to repeal Obamacare. He is doing so not because he hates people, as the media will have you believe, but because this horrific policy is bankrupting our country, while offering a mediocre excuse for healthcare. Costs are out of control, and no entity is responsible for healing patients. It’s a bad deal, plain and simple. The Trump administration must also be ready to assist and match the private sector in adopting blockchain technologies as quickly as possible. Healthcare entrepreneurs must employ the latest advances in technology, including blockchain, to reinvent healthcare delivery models.

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Turning around the US Economy:- My Top Recommendations for President elect Trump

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The people have finally spoken. Donald J. Trump has won and will be our next President for the next four years … and if things are done right, maybe the next eight too.

It is not going to be easy given the mess he inherited from President Obama which basically sums up as below.

  1. Total US debt, including private and business debt, is today $67 trillion, or just under 400% of GDP.
  2. We have 95 million people not in the labor force; 15 million of them not employed. That’s twice the number officially unemployed.
  3. We have almost 2 million prison inmates, 43 million people living in poverty, 43 million receiving food stamps, 57 million Medicare enrollees, 73 million Medicaid recipients and 31 million still without health insurance.
  4. The US federal government debt will be slightly north of $20 trillion before Obama leaves office in January. Local and state debt is another $3 trillion. That is a total of more than $23 trillion of government debt and a debt-to-GDP ratio of somewhat over 121%. That debt has risen roughly $10 trillion under Obama, in just eight years. This US debt total does not even take into account the over $100 trillion of unfunded liabilities at local, state, and federal levels that are going to have to be paid for at some point.

Bottom Line:  We are still witnessing a disaster in the making. The more we increase our debt, the more difficult it is going to be to grow our way out of our problem with the debt.

Something like $5.5 trillion is “intergovernmental debt.” And even if we did dismiss this internal debt, the government’s debt-to-GDP ratio would still be almost 100% when you include state and local debt….And after eight years of the slowest economic recovery in history, we are growing our debt dramatically faster than we are growing our country—even when we include inflation. Go figure.

My recommendations for President elect Trump

Cutting corporate and individual taxes, effecting significant regulatory rollback and fixing the Affordable Care Act may help stimulate growth but will not be a sufficient condition to stimulate growth. Significant regulatory rollback will help. It is also necessary but not sufficient.

Some more serious actions should include but not limited to:

  1. Reinstituting first and foremost the Glass-Steagall Act because Wall Street cannot be trusted to manage their risk properly. This would separate true banking activities from the high risk gambling that brought the economic system to its knees. Privatizing the profits and socializing the losses is unacceptable.
  2. Appointing the right next four people out of the seven governors to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. People coming from the business world; neither economists nor academics please. Also having a Federal Reserve that is more neutral in its policy making and that realizes that the role of the Fed should be to provide liquidity in times of major crisis not to fine tune the economy, will do much to balance out the future.
  3. Putting the value of the dollar relative to the currencies of other countries under the purview of the Treasury Department, not the Fed. Too much power to the Fed already.
  4. Having the currency of the US backed by hard assets. A basket of gold, silver, platinum, uranium, and some other limited hard commodities would back the USD. If politicians attempted to spend too much, the price of this basket would reflect their inflationary schemes immediately.
  5. Directing to have the FASB to make all banks and financial corporations value their assets at their true market value. An orderly bankruptcy of all insolvent financial firms involving the sell-off of their legitimate assets to well-run risk adverse banks that didn’t screw up should ensue. Bondholders and stockholders would realize their losses for awful investment decisions. The economic system would be purged of its bad debt.
  6. Having the Social Security System completely overhauled. Anyone 50 or older would get exactly what they were promised. The age for collecting Social Security would be gradually raised to 72 over the next 15 years. Those between 25 and 50 would be given the option to opt out of Social Security. They would be given their contributions to invest as they see fit if they opt out. Anyone entering the workforce today would not pay in or receive any benefits. The wage limit for Social Security would be eliminated and the tax rate would be reduced from 6.2% to 3%.
  7. Dismantling Obamacare in its entirety and converting it from a government program to a private market based program. The Federal mandates, rules and regulations would be eliminated. Senior citizens would be given healthcare vouchers which they would be free to use with any insurance company or doctor based on price and quality. Insurance companies would compete for business on a national basis. Doctors would compete for business. The GAO would have their budget doubled and they would audit Medicare fraud & Medicaid fraud and prosecute the criminals without impunity.
  8. Repealing the healthcare bill. Insurance companies would be allowed to compete with each other on a national basis. Tort reform would be implemented so that doctors could do their jobs without fear of being destroyed by slimy personal injury lawyers. Doctors would need to post their costs for various procedures. Here again, price and quality would drive the healthcare market.
  9. Dismantling completely the entitlement state.  The criteria for collecting welfare, SSDI, food stamps and unemployment benefits would be made much stricter. Unemployed people collecting government payments would be required to clean up parks, volunteer at community charity organizations, pick up trash along highways, fix and paint houses in their neighborhoods and generally keep busy in a productive manner for society.
  10. We must make a serious effort to have a balanced budget and to fund healthcare and Social Security. I would propose some form of a value-added tax (VAT) that would specifically pay for Social Security and healthcare. I would also propose that we eliminate Social Security funding from both the individual and business side of the equation and take those costs from the VAT.
  11. We also need to get rid of the shackles on growth and get the incentive structure right with the proper tax mix. Then American entrepreneurs can probably get us out of the hole we’re in without it getting too much deeper. With the amazing new technologies that are coming along, we can probably get to a point where we can in fact grow our way out of our debt problem over the next 10 to 15 years.
  12. It is one thing to talk about unfair trade agreements—and we have certainly signed a few. But we also need to recognize that some 11.5 million jobs in the US are dependent upon exports (about 40% of which are services). If we drop our corporate tax to 15% and work on reducing the regulatory burden, I think we will be pleasantly surprised by how many jobs are created just by those steps alone.

As a conclusion, let me be very clear. If we don’t get the debt and deficit under control—and by that I mean that at a minimum we bring the annual increase in the national debt to below the level of nominal GDP growth—we will simply postpone an inevitable crisis. We have $100 trillion of unfunded liabilities that are going to come due in the next few decades. We have to get the entitlement problem figured out and we must do it without blowing out the debt. If we don’t, I am afraid we will have a financial crisis that will rival the Great Depression and maybe worse.

We’re in a world where most major economies are also in trouble. If the US starts printing again money merely to service its debt because people don’t buy its debt, then I foresee total global debt in the $500 trillion range and global GDP topping $100 trillion. A total global economic disaster.

I have tremendous faith in President elect Trump and his team and just hope all those prescriptions will not go unheeded although they certainly go far, long-term, in fixing a system which is quite dysfunctional and broken.

“Draining the swamp” of our present economic morass will certainly require drastic action tantamount to a real revolution in both thought and practice.

The Old Order has gotten us into this mess, and cannot, or is unwilling, to get us out. It is past time for them to go.

Nothing much in a positive, productive sense can be accomplished under our government, as presently constituted, as it has devolved into a Fascistic, crony-corporatist construct.

Until those who govern are forced to experience outcomes consistent with those experienced by the governed, I am afraid the Republic will drift ever further away from the establishment principles envisioned by those rebellious Founding Fathers, who were intoxicated upon the fumes of liberty, fraternity, and equality of opportunity.

God bless our new President elect Trump and the United States of America…. Time to roll up our sleeves and start making America great again.

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Financial Impacts of Foreign Events

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Events around the world have an impact on financial policy, investment strategy, trade and commerce, and each of these has an impact on the others. It is time to do another review of global events and their financial impact. This article contains both analysis and my own editorial opinion. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions of whoever publishes it.

One issue that has attracted a great deal of interest in news reports is the issue of internal and external security threats to Europe. Much of this has to do with the mass immigration of refugees from the tumult in the Middle East, and Islamist Jihadist extremists in their midst. However, in my opinion, the greatest threat at present is the deepening fragmentation within Europe of public opinion camps – and policymaking camps – over policies and policy-making of the European Union. Three factors are influencing this: the rising power of Germany within the EU; the apparent inability of the regions minorities – and particularly the recently-arrived Islamic minorities – to integrate into European society; and the threat of terrorism, largely from Islamist Jihadist cells within the immigrant population. These threaten to stall the region’s efforts at greater integration and enhanced common security. External factors that are affecting this are: the collapse of previously stable states in North Africa and the Middle East into failed states; the retreat of the United States from the world stage, both militarily and from its historic leadership role; and the resurgence of Russian State military ambitions and its apparent efforts to resume the empire-building of Peter the Great. Middle Eastern events have produced the flood of refugees that provides internal instability; the retreat of the United States leads to increased instability world-wide, and a fragmented Europe has difficulty in dealing with this without US leadership; and Russia provides threats to the eastern frontiers of Europe. Unfortunately, all of these factors are likely to intensify in the near future rather than to wane.

Europe is beset by some of its most serious threats internally since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The European Union has failed to achieve the unity of purpose and policy needed to handle the complex issues it faces. National policies tend to take precedent over pan-European issues in the stronger European countries. Economic uncertainties and failures have awoken the struggles between left and right that had remained largely submerged when Europe was facing the threat of Soviet invasion. Ethnic and religious minorities that remained relatively quiet during the Cold War are now asserting themselves, in large part either in opposition to, or emboldened by, the influx of Muslims. This threatens to balkanize Europe politically, even as national boundaries and states remain as they were. High levels of joblessness and financial insecurity among many of these minority populations produce demands that the State “do something.” Germany, Sweden, Greece, France, Italy, and Belgium are particularly affected by this. Recent terrorist attacks in France and Belgium have highlighted the problems resulting from uncontrolled immigration and the failure to screen out dangerous immigrants from those simply seeking a better life.

Externally, the situation is worsening as well. The unprecedented period of peace along the eastern periphery that followed the ending of the wars in the former Yugoslavia enabled Europe and the European nations to focus on internal issues, downsize their militaries, and further subsidize and adjust their social subsidies. The resulting decrease in levels of military, security and intelligence activity paved the way not only for internal attacks by terrorists but for Russia’s expansionist imperialism. When Europe needs her most, the United States is “leading from behind,” which means not leading. There are even calls by US politicians to reconsider whether NATO is even useful.

Internal and external political and security risks to Europe and its nations are at their highest levels in decades, and rising. The resulting instability depresses legitimate trade, encourages smuggling, increases illegal arms trade and distribution, and produces demands on central banks to “do something.” From the standpoint of central banks, there is little that can be done financially without cooperation from the political sphere. Trade and commerce need these things in order to prosper: the rule of law; stable currency; lack of barriers to trade; low levels of regulation; societal security and prosperity; and government policy that aids all of these. These things can be summed up as small government, economic freedom, and stable currency. Many politicians (and their followers), however, are headed left, which will only make the situation worse. A central bank can only do so much. All it can do is to stabilize its currency. This causes profligate governments to fail financially, and leftist politicians don’t like that. A resurgence of capitalism is needed, and the world needs the US to lead that resurgence.

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The World In a (Cracked) Nutshell: Things Happen

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Picture used with permission from William Reid of www.northernpecans.blogspot.com

Investors and people in the business world need to be aware of world events and the impact they have on their business outcomes. Recent events of which we should all be aware are:

  • The Russian-Turkish Rivalry
  • The Apparent Steadying of the European Economy
  • The Death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia
  • Prison Riot in Mexico City
  • The Northwards Spread of the Vika Virus
  • Trade Dispute between Russia and Ukraine
  • Rapid Changes in the Syrian Civil War
  • Economic, Security and Political Developments in Central Africa
  • Growing Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan
  • The Weakening of the Indian Rupee
  • Growing Stresses between North and South Korea
  • Poor Performance of Japan’s Economy
  • The Persistent Decline of Oil and Gas Prices
  • American Political Chaos

Some of these are of more concern to some of us than others – it all depends on the nature of our investments and business interests. Let’s look at these and their impacts. It is through politics that events will have their greatest impact on business and investment clients.

American Political Chaos

American politics is becoming increasingly chaotic because fewer and fewer people identify with either of the two, dominant political parties, but are now “independents.” These “Independents,” however, cover the entire spectrum of politics from far right to far left. In my neighborhood alone, which is majority Democrat by voter registration, I know voters who are not affiliated with either the Democratic Party nor with the Republican Party who have not registered as members of a party because (1) the Republican party is too far to the left for them; (2) the Democratic Party is too far to the right for them; (3) The Republican Party is too far to the right and the Democratic Party is too far to the Left; (4) the Republican party and the Democratic Party are both too far to the right; and (5) The Republican Party and the Democratic Party are both too far to the left. Many of these “Independents” are not registered to vote at all, because they don’t think they should have to declare their party preferences when registering. At the same time, they say they are angry because they have no voice in the selection of candidates. Many of the Independents, many of the Republicans, and Many of the Democrats are angry at both major parties, are angry at the government in Washington because they feel it does not represent them or serve their interests, and so they’re “Mad as Hell and aren’t going to take it any more.”

This has resulted in a primary campaign in which the front-runner in the Republican Party is an outsider to the political process, Donald Trump, who, until recently, was a Democrat and espoused Liberal positions, but who now has the backing of a large swath of the conservative Republican voters. On the Democrat side, the establishment candidate, Hillary Clinton, has the vast majority of convention delegates so far but is running neck and neck with “Democratic Socialist” Bernie Sanders, who is supported by the leftists in the party and the young voters in the party. For much of his political career, Bernie Sanders was a card-carrying official of the Trotskyite Marxist (with overtones of Maoism) Socialist Workers’ Party, but he then became a Democrat and proclaims himself a “Democratic Socialist.” It seems that the younger generation of voters has given up on capitalism, thinks Socialism is the most equitable economic system, and hates banks and big business. We will not know for sure how the Independents will vote until the November elections, but it is not impossible that the election will be between Trump and Sanders.

How does this affect investment and business? If Sanders wins, but the House and Senate remain Republican-controlled, there will likely be a standoff between the White House and Congress and the government will do very little. This means that business can proceed to do its own thing, and investors can invest without fearing a change in the regulatory environment. If Trump wins, and Republicans retain control of the House and Senate, there is likely to be a reform of regulation to promote business and investment. In either case, investors and businesses will likely not suffer at the hands of the US government, despite the present political chaos in America.

The death of Justice Scalia foretells a standoff in the Supreme Court, now evenly divided between liberals and conservatives. Republicans in the Senate seem poised to prevent President Obama from being able to appoint a successor to Scalia, saving the seat to be filled by an appointee of the next president.

In Mexico prison riots were sparked by battles between the Zetas cartel and the Gulf Cartel. The resulting fires spread to a number of areas of the prison. 49 people were killed. Conditions in other prisons in Mexico’s overpopulated prison system threaten to spark more unrest. The inability of the Mexican federal and state governments to reduce the influence and control of drug gangs over broad swaths of territory causes increasing concern. Continuing flows of migrants from south of Mexico through Mexico into the United States continue to raise flags, particularly political flags, in the US, where Republican candidates pledge to stop illegal immigration and Democrat candidates pledge to legalize it.

Middle East (West Asia)

Tensions between Turkey, which seeks the ouster of the regime in Syria, and Russia, which is actively supporting the regime with a military presence and military action in Syria, remain one of the major flashpoints in the world and the one flashpoint that could bring two nations to war with each other. Syria has already shot down a Russian jet that strayed over Turkish territory (but they shot it down over Syria). For the immediate future, Syria will remain the front line between Turkey and Russia.

Russia has desired for centuries to establish control over the Bosporus, which has been under Turkish control since the Turkish Sultan conquered Constantinople and renamed it Istanbul. Turkey has the ability to close the strait and keep a significant Russian fleet bottled up in the Black Sea. Turkey and Russia have fought wars against each other periodically for the past 300 years. The current tensions between Turkey and Syria are much deeper than just the issues involving Syria, but are not likely to provoke a conflict. If they come into conflict over Syria, however, each might take advantage of that to try to make gains in the Black Sea and Baltic areas. Russia’s entry into the Syrian conflict seems to have taken Turkey (and a number of other interested countries) by surprise. We all seem to have forgotten that nature abhors a (power) vacuum – and that when one exists, someone will fill it. Turkey has a number of potential conflicts along its borders other than Syria. Within its borders is ISIS, definitively an enemy of the regime. The Kurds in northeastern Syria and northern Iraq are seen by the Turks as enemies. Refugees streaming across Turkish borders from Syria and Iraq are a problem for Turkey if Europe will not let them go from Turkey into Europe. Because of the myriad crises along Turkey’s borders, Turkey is not in a strong position to intervene decisively in the Syrian conflict. Russia is likely to bog down in Syria, finding itself unable to withdraw without its withdrawal causing the collapse of the Assad regime. If other Middle Eastern States start to take an active role in Syria, the conflict could widen dramatically. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Israel are all affected by the Syrian Crisis and might be tempted to take an active role. Russia and the US have agreed to a cease fire, but must convince the various rebel and Islamist groups in Syria, and the other interested parties, to engage in a cease fire for it to become real. If a cease fire is not achievable, an active conflict between Russia and Turkey, or between either and other states in the Middle East, could have profound impact on investors and businesses around the world.

The agreement reached last week by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela and Qatar to freeze oil production at current levels helps to prevent further declines in oil prices, but will not reverse the trend because the current global oversupply in oil is partly the result of those levels of oil production. Of course, the dramatic increase in American oil production is also a significant contributor to global oil price declines, but the “free market” in the US will cure that factor by causing a reduction in US oil production. Oil drilling in the US is now dramatically reduced, with fewer than 10% as many rigs operating now compared with a year ago. While oil will remain at low levels until the surplus of stored oil is absorbed, eventually the market will right itself. In the mean time, there may be buying opportunities for investors interested in buying shares of companies whose share prices are depressed below the real value of the companies. It is also an opportunity for oil speculators who are positioned to buy oil and hold it until prices recover. This will have the effect of removing oil from the market and hastening the recovery of the oil market.

South America

The Venezuelan opposition is stepping up its efforts to oust President Nicolas Maduro from office. Possible conflict between the opposition and Maduro’s supporters could impact oil production in this important contributor to the world’s supply of oil. Until recently, it was difficult to determine the state of Venezuela’s economy because Venezuela has no independent official statistical agencies, but it is clear that Venezuela’s Socialist economy is in full collapse, having shrunk by 10% this year alone with inflation threatening to reach 700%.

Argentina, similarly, has been a significant unknown, with the official statistical agencies controlled by allies of the previous Argentinian government, skewing the results of their analysis to support the positions of the previous government. Now that President Mauricio Macri has taken office, he has moved to restore the independence of these statistical agencies. This has led to statistics that reveal the true inflation afflicting the Argentinian economy.

Bolivians are voting in a referendum on lifting term limits for the Bolivian presidency, which could risk the rise of a Marxist dictatorship in that country.

In the midst of all of this the Zika outbreak is moving northward. However, the fear of microcephaly may be overblown, because not all areas infected with Zika have similar rates of microcephaly. Scientists suspect that the combination of the Zika virus with certain insecticides used in certain areas may be causing local epidemics of microcephaly.

Central and South Asia

In Afghanistan, civilian casualties are continuing to rise even as Afghan forces, led by US Special Operations forces make gains against the Taliban and ISIS in Afghanistan. The level of civilian deaths was the same in 2015 as in 2014, but the level of civilians injured was the highest since civilian casualty records began in 2009. The Afghan government says that in areas of fighting, an increasing number of civilians is choosing to flee their homes, and that both death and casualty levels would be higher if they had not “chosen” to do so. This could affect the economies of other nations if the current conflict spreads into Pakistan.

In India, the Rupee is weakening, despite having been a much stronger currency than many of its emerging market rivals over the past two years. Last week, the Rupee approached an all-time low against the US dollar. The drop in the Rupee seems to be the result of falling levels of investor confidence in the global economy, as well as a response to some troubling economic data that emerged recently in India. India’s economy may continue to slow in the first quarter of the year, providing risky buying opportunity for adventurous investors.

East Asia and Pacific

Increasing tensions between North and South Korea, bolstered by the largest joint military and naval exercise by South Korean and US forces, give rise to concern. In the South China Sea, rising tensions between the conflicting territorial claims of the nations bordering that sea are primarily due to the expansive claims by China over virtually the entire sea. China has been building islands on which it places military-capable runways in the middle of the South China Sea, in order to bolster (and defend) its territorial claims. This risks increasing nationalism on the part of Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea, all of which are increasing their investments in their military forces, in particular in their navies. While actual conflict appears only a remote possibility, the increasing militarization gives rise to concern. Here again, is the operation of the vacuum principle. In the face of military weakness on the part of the United States, local powers are seeking to fill the power vacuum. In the meantime, Japan’s economy continues to struggle to generate growth. In the fourth quarter of 2014, it expanded just 0.5%, but shrank by 0.4% in comparison with the fourth quarter of the previous year. Domestic factors were the largest reasons for the poor performance of the economy. The real estate sector remained weak and consumer spending levels were disappointing. Export markets remained weak in the face of weak external demand. This places more pressure on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to undertake more stimulus measures. While there may be buying opportunities in Japanese shares, it may be some time before they recover value. The Chinese Yuan will remain highly visible. Despite concerns over China’s economy, the Yuan is stronger than most of its emerging market rivals. This encourages Chinese companies to outsource rather than to build new capacity in China, which further stalls the Chinese economy.

Africa

Boco Haram, Al Qaeda, ISIS and affiliated groups in Africa continue to provide a source of political and economic instability. Nigeria faces significant economic and security problems. After taking office last year, President Muhammadu Buhari has taken significant steps to revive Nigeria’s economic and political stability, and to reduce the levels of unrest and corruption. Oil prices have fallen dramatically, which has harmed the oil-dependent national economy and dramatically reduced government revenues. Although Nigeria has mounted a strong military campaign against Boko Haram in the northeast, this has failed so far to bring an end to the Boko Haram threat to Nigeria.

The Central African Republic recently underwent the second round of voting in its presidential election. This round pitted former CAR prime ministers Faustin Touadera and Anicet Dologuele against one another. Both candidates promise to bring peace and stability to the republic and to restore the economy, but their ability to do so in the face of the Boco Haram regional threat is questionable. Boko Haram has mounted attacks in a number of central and western African countries, making foreign investment keep its distance.

In northern Africa, the failed nation-state of Libya dominates the area by spreading instability, terrorism and uncertainty. Libyan oil, once a significant supplier of Europe’s fuel needs, flows only intermittently, with ports often controlled by terrorists. No solution for Libya in particular (and northern Africa in general) appears in the offing. Egypt is taking a stronger role, but likely lacks the ability to exert power to bring ISIS and related groups in northern Africa to heel, despite having largely quelled the Muslim Brotherhood within its own borders. Islamist extremism is still strong in Egypt, and stronger in pockets of northern Africa like Libya. This is unlikely to change in the absence of any likelihood of a defeat for ISIS in the near future in Syria and Iraq.

Europe

We look at Europe last, because Europe is on the receiving end of the consequences of what is going on elsewhere in the world. The United States is as well, but it is a player of little influence as long as it tries to “lead from behind” and so it is a contributor to the instabilities that are impacting the Europeans rather than simply being a recipient of their consequences.

A major trade spat has developed between Russia and Ukraine. Two weeks ago, Russia prevented more than 150 trucks from Ukraine from travelling through Russia on their way to Kazakhstan. The Ukrainian government responded by banning Russian trucks from crossing Ukraine on their way to other countries. Economic ties between Russia and Ukraine have become significantly worse since the free trade deal between Ukraine and Europe took effect last month.

Despite the troubles between Russia and Ukraine, the economies of Central Europe in general have continued to grow, driven by high domestic demand and growing demand for exports from Central Europe in West Europe. Poland, the regions largest economy, grew by 3.6% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, continuing its impressive rates of economic growth. Hungary Slovakia and Romania also experienced impressive rates of growth in the fourth quarter, thanks to those countries strong manufacturing sectors. Poland has backed Ukraine in its recent trade dispute with Russia, which could inflame tensions between Poland and Russia.

The European economy in general remains stable. It is not known how it will respond to a possible (but unlikely) withdrawal from the European Union by the United Kingdom. What is more likely is a weakening of the voice of Europe in British affairs. All in all, we can expect a steadier European economy. The domino-effect crises that have occurred over the last six years have dominated the picture, ranging from the Greek economic collapse to the struggles of all the southern European economies. Despite the continuing problems in Greece, most of the news out of Europe over the past year has concentrated on the region’s slow and steady recovery from the struggles. Although the results from Europe have been unspectacular, they are much better than previous years and give the impression of steadiness, if not growth. The four largest economies outside of Eastern Europe grew by between 1% and 2% on a year-on-year basis, ranging from 1% in Italy (a good performance compared with recent history) to 1.9% in Britain. Countries that have taken steps to boost competitiveness (Spain and Eastern Europe) show growth rates in excess of 3%. This news is dampened somewhat by the fact that Greece and Finland remain in recession that are likely to continue in 2016. Overall growth in the European Union in 2015 was 1.8%, a better performance than in recent years. The British “motto” of World War II comes to mine: “Keep calm and carry on.”

Summary

So, we have just described the State of the World in a nutshell – a cracked nutshell. Nuts in cracked nutshells can leak crumbs out, reducing the size of the nut, and the nut itself is more likely to spoil. Our nations’ leaders need to concentrating on un-cracking the nut rather than on saving the contents, because they can’t save the contents while the nut remains cracked. Without global security (a coherent nutshell), the global economy itself cracks up. While there will always be trouble spots in the world, the task of the world’s leaders is to keep them contained so they don’t spread. In the absence of American exercise of power, the wildfires are spreading rapidly, and the global economy threatens to crack up along with the nutshell. Many are the times I have cracked the kernel of a walnut when attempting to crack only the shell and extract the kernel whole. It is time to restore security to broad swaths of the world, and there is no one capable of doing it but the United States. If we do not do it, we will suffer along with the rest of the world.

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